Monday, 19 July 2010

Labour Bouncing Back

Normally when a new government takes power they have a honeymoon period. This is reflected in good local council election results. So this analysis by Mark Senior makes for interesting reading....

There have so far between 18 English major council byelections in July . It is interesting to look at the accumulated vote totals ( over 28,000 votes ) and the vote share changes from when the seats were last fought in the 2006-2009 period .
Conservative 27% minus 3%
Labour 31% plus 8%
LibDem 22% plus 3%
Others 20% minus 8%

In case the results were distorted by the very high BNP vote in Barking , Goresbrook and Green vote in Brighton St Peters , I repeated the exercise without those 2 seats , the vote share changes were almost identical
Conservative 30% minus 5%
Labour 31% plus 9%
LibDem 26% plus 3%
Others 13% minus 7%


  1. Interesting how the Lib/Dems, who, according to some commentators, had let down their voters and destroyed their future prospects by joining a Conservative led coalition, have actually seen their vote rise in these local skirmishes. Shows that you can really read little into them.

    The real test will come in due course if there is a bi-election in a parliamentary marginal constituency. Until then it is premature to read too much into local results.

  2. By-elections are far less of an indicator than local government votes. I agree it is early to tell. However, the Labour vote in local elections has consistently been better than the national figures for over a year. I think that is partly down to Gordon Brown. Until Labour has a new Leader it will be hard to assess how much of a drag Gordon Brown was on Labour's electoral performance.

  3. But DEAD CATS 'Bounce'

  4. I think after labour won the oldham by election, that scene will be repeated accross the country come the next general election. Why anyone would vote for cameron and his dodgy slave and complete muppet nick clegg. When you go accross the country scaring pensioners, and the disabled and making the jobseekers, hammering the young with hefty tuition fees and scrapping ema, and labelling anyone on any sort of benefit as scroungers, its no surprise the country is turning on this condem nation. Upping the tax on the poor(vat) Sacking police officers when people are being kicked off benefits. What do you think these people will do, alot of them will turn to crime, and why not. Less police and less people going to prison is a god send to some of em. Anyone with money will become targets. And what happens to mentally ill people forced to work when they shouldnt, what happens if they snap and attack someone at work or something like that. Will the govt be liable for that. No course not, all that would happen is theyd have taken an ill person who was gettin by, just, and made them end up in prison. Really good idea tories. Modern day britain has no place for the ancient conservative party no more. Get them out, keep them out and lets not let them bring havoc and riots to this country. They are making england a laughing stock throughout the world. Its sad and ruining peoples hopes and everyday lives. Its also sad how they lied and lied n lied. Should be illegal. Tories n lib dems are dangerous to our home and country, please britains wise up.